Preseason Rankings
Incarnate Word
Southland
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-11.5#330
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.4#110
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-5.5#315
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-6.0#333
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 5.7% 33.2% 5.5%
.500 or above in Conference 19.7% 43.8% 19.6%
Conference Champion 0.6% 1.9% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 27.4% 2.4% 27.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Tech (Away) - 0.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 1.50.0 - 1.5
Quad 1b0.0 - 0.80.0 - 2.3
Quad 20.1 - 1.60.1 - 3.9
Quad 30.8 - 6.00.9 - 9.9
Quad 46.3 - 9.97.2 - 19.8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 29   @ Texas Tech L 59-82 1%    
  Nov 16, 2018 73   Montana L 64-83 4%    
  Nov 17, 2018 199   North Dakota St. L 67-76 20%    
  Nov 18, 2018 266   Florida Atlantic L 69-75 32%    
  Nov 21, 2018 172   Northern Colorado L 71-82 24%    
  Nov 25, 2018 320   @ SIU Edwardsville L 73-75 34%    
  Dec 09, 2018 46   @ LSU L 65-86 2%    
  Dec 17, 2018 181   @ Illinois-Chicago L 70-81 12%    
  Dec 19, 2018 89   @ DePaul L 66-83 4%    
  Jan 02, 2019 304   McNeese St. L 74-77 49%    
  Jan 05, 2019 263   Nicholls St. L 75-81 41%    
  Jan 12, 2019 258   @ Sam Houston St. L 68-74 23%    
  Jan 16, 2019 303   Central Arkansas L 77-81 49%    
  Jan 19, 2019 105   Stephen F. Austin L 67-83 14%    
  Jan 23, 2019 227   @ Lamar L 68-76 19%    
  Jan 26, 2019 292   New Orleans L 68-72 45%    
  Jan 30, 2019 312   Houston Baptist L 79-82 50%    
  Feb 02, 2019 292   @ New Orleans L 68-72 27%    
  Feb 09, 2019 309   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 69-72 32%    
  Feb 13, 2019 236   @ SE Louisiana L 67-74 20%    
  Feb 16, 2019 230   Abilene Christian L 69-76 35%    
  Feb 20, 2019 227   Lamar L 68-76 34%    
  Feb 23, 2019 105   @ Stephen F. Austin L 67-83 6%    
  Feb 27, 2019 328   @ Northwestern St. L 71-72 40%    
  Mar 02, 2019 309   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 69-72 50%    
  Mar 06, 2019 312   @ Houston Baptist L 79-82 32%    
  Mar 09, 2019 230   @ Abilene Christian L 69-76 20%    
Projected Record 7.2 - 19.8 5.9 - 12.1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 3.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.1 0.9 0.1 4.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.8 1.2 0.1 5.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.2 2.5 0.3 0.0 6.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 3.2 3.3 0.6 0.0 7.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.5 4.0 1.1 0.0 9.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.2 4.8 1.8 0.2 10.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.9 3.6 5.3 2.8 0.4 0.0 13.1 11th
12th 0.3 1.7 4.7 5.8 3.2 0.6 0.0 16.1 12th
13th 1.5 3.9 6.0 4.9 2.2 0.4 0.0 18.9 13th
Total 1.5 4.1 7.8 10.4 12.1 12.7 12.3 10.3 9.0 7.4 5.1 3.1 2.0 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 80.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0
15-3 72.5% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 27.2% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 16.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.1% 0.1
15-3 0.2% 0.2
14-4 0.6% 0.6
13-5 1.3% 1.3
12-6 2.0% 2.0
11-7 3.1% 3.1
10-8 5.1% 5.1
9-9 7.4% 7.4
8-10 9.0% 9.0
7-11 10.3% 10.3
6-12 12.3% 12.3
5-13 12.7% 12.7
4-14 12.1% 12.1
3-15 10.4% 10.4
2-16 7.8% 7.8
1-17 4.1% 4.1
0-18 1.5% 1.5
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.9%